Novig pricesPatriots vs. Packers: Green Bay's pass defense rarely gets beaten deep, Packers writer says
A Packers writer says Green Bay rarely gets beaten deep, and the Patriots are favored at -163 on Novig against a Packers team without Micah Parsons.
Drake Maye and the Patriots probably won't get much by throwing deep against Green Bay on Sunday. A Packers beat writer's scouting report points instead to the middle of the field: handle the blitz, then throw intermediate routes before the pressure gets home. Micah Parsons won't be there to add to that pressure.
In a pregame question-and-answer session run by Taylor Kyles of Pats Pulpit, which SB Nation syndicated, a writer from SB Nation's Packers blog said no opponent has had steady success throwing deep on Green Bay's cornerbacks. Detroit did the most damage by picking up the blitzes and working over the middle. He also said the Packers still rank near the top of the league in passer rating allowed, and that's before counting their sacks.
He credited defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon with disguising pressure well enough that a protection with seven blockers can still leave a rusher free when Green Bay sends only five. Parsons won't make his Packers debut in this game. The writer said Parsons only took part in individual drills this week and might not play before the Thanksgiving Eve game. RotoBaller reported Friday that Parsons had been ruled out for Week 9.
On the other side of the ball, he described a Green Bay offense that depends on big plays. Jordan Love has had to carry it. The offensive line struggled early and still can't get push in the run game, the Packers don't have a dynamic back, and their receivers lead the NFL in drops. Christian Watson and Matthew Golden are both true deep threats. He suggested Green Bay may move Watson into the slot more often against a New England secondary that plays man coverage and has defensive backs follow receivers. That would quickly settle whether Christian Gonzalez shadows Watson. He also pointed to Carolina, which kept two safeties deep all game last week to force check-downs and runs.
What it means for Sunday
New England enters at 5-3 after a 24-19 win at Miami, its second win in three games. The Patriots have won all three home games, against the Steelers, Raiders and Jets, by a combined 91-39. They are 2-3 on the road. Over eight games they have scored 23.0 points per game and allowed 20.3. They have lost to good defenses: they scored 10 points at Seattle and 6 at Jacksonville. That's why the advice about intermediate throws matters against a Green Bay unit with this kind of pass-rush scheme.
On this site's board, which covers 12 venues, the Patriots are favored. Novig has New England at -163 on the moneyline and Green Bay at +160. On Novig, the spread is Patriots -3.5 at +108. The best Patriots spread price anywhere is FanDuel's -3 at -115, so the venues differ by half a point. The total is 44.5 everywhere. The over is -106 on Novig, and theScore Bet has the best over price at -105. Sportsbook hold ranges from 2.5% to 5.3% on the moneyline, so the venues are fairly close. New England's games so far have averaged 43.3 combined points, just under that number.
The schedule stays tough after this game. The Patriots play at Detroit on November 15, and Novig has them at -104 for that game, close to even. Follow the season on our Patriots team page.