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PatriotsWeek 9Novig prices

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots

Green Bay Packers (5-3-0) at New England Patriots (5-3-0) · Gillette Stadium · Week 9

New England Patriots is favored at -163 with the spread at New England Patriots -3.5 and the total at 44.5.

Gillette Stadium
Gillette Stadium. Photo: Yunner, Public domain
Preview

Packers at Patriots: Two 5-3 Teams Meet at Gillette With Momentum on the Line

Green Bay and New England arrive with identical records and rising confidence, and Sunday's winner leaves Foxborough with a claim to being the real thing.

Two 5-3 teams meet Sunday at Gillette Stadium, and reports this week framed it simply: the Patriots and Packers both ride strong momentum into the matchup. For New England, that momentum has a backstory. Drake Maye has spoken about the Patriots overcoming early adversity, according to reports, and a win over a quality NFC opponent would strengthen the case that this team has found its footing. Kickoff is 4:25 PM ET on Fox.

The quarterback matchup sets the tone. The market expects more volume from Jordan Love, whose passing yards line sits at 276.5, than from Maye at 230.5. That gap suggests Green Bay is projected to lean on the pass, while New England may look to stay balanced and keep Love on the sideline. Rhamondre Stevenson, with a rushing line of 54.5, is central to that plan. On the other side, Josh Jacobs carries a rushing line of 47.5.

Love has options. Christian Watson's receiving line is 73.5, rookie Matthew Golden's is 67.5, and tight end Tucker Kraft's is 43.5. New England's secondary will need to account for all three. For the Patriots, DeMario Douglas is listed at 40.5 receiving yards, and reports say the team's young receivers are getting center stage following news involving A.J. Brown. Reports also say the Patriots announced news on TreVeyon Henderson after an injury revelation, a situation worth watching before kickoff. Separately, reports say Tom Brady is returning to Gillette Stadium to broadcast his first Patriots game.

The market has New England as a 3.5-point favorite, with the total at 44.5 and the Patriots at -160 on the moneyline. That is a modest edge for the home side in a game between evenly matched teams.

Prices

12 venues · refreshed every 10 min
VenueMoneylineSpreadTotal
GBNEGBNEOverUnder
NovigNovig+156-163+3.5-113-3.5+10844.5-10844.5+102
DraftKingsDraftKings+142-170+3-105-3-11544.5-11544.5-105
FanDuelFanDuel+140-166+3-110-3-11044.5-11044.5-110
BetMGMBetMGM+140-165+3-108-3-11044.5-11044.5-108
bet365bet365+147-174+3.5-124-3.5+10444.5-11244.5-108
BetRiversBetRivers+140-175+3-105-3-11745-11445-106
Hard Rock BetHard Rock Bet+140-165+3-105-3-11545-10545-115
theScore BettheScore Bet+140-165+3-105-3-11544.5-10544.5-115
FanaticsFanatics+140-170+3-105-3-11544.5-11044.5-110
PinnaclePinnacle+146-170+3+101-3-11445-10445-112
KalshiKalshi+146-175––––
PolymarketPolymarket+152-168––––

Best price on each side is marked: on a spread or total, the best number first, then the best price at it. Kalshi and Polymarket are shown after their fees.

Player props

Main lines at the sportsbooks, best price on each side.

PlayerLineOverUnder
Jordan Love
Passing yards
274.5-111Novig-106Novig
Drake Maye
Passing yards
230.5-111Novig-104Novig
Christian Watson
Receiving yards
79.5+127Novig-150Novig
Matthew Golden
Receiving yards
68.5-115BetMGM-115BetMGM
Tucker Kraft
Receiving yards
43.5-120BetMGM-111BetMGM
DeMario Douglas
Receiving yards
40.5-115BetMGM-115BetMGM
Hunter Henry
Receiving yards
36.5-115DraftKings-109DraftKings
Efton Chism III
Receiving yards
30.5-110DraftKings-111DraftKings
Rhamondre Stevenson
Receiving yards
23.5-108Novig-114FanDuel
Josh Jacobs
Receiving yards
22.5-115BetMGM-115BetMGM
Kyle Williams
Receiving yards
19.5-114DraftKings-110DraftKings
Savion Williams
Receiving yards
17.5-111BetMGM-120BetMGM

The Sharp Desk on this game

All picks
Lou
Veteran market maker
Pending
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
Spread
Green Bay Packers +3.5
-108
Novig

Moneyline says the Patriots win about 61 percent of the time, which is a field goal, not more. You can sit at 3.5 on the Packers at -108 or lay 3 at -110, and that half-point over the key number is real money, kid. Two 5-3 teams, momentum headlines on both sides, and I take the side of 3 that pays me.

Lou
Veteran market maker
Pending
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
Player pick · Rushing yards
Rhamondre Stevenson under 54.5 rushing yards
+102
Novig

Stevenson under 54.5 rushing yards pays +102 while the over costs -114, so the market is charging a premium for the popular side. I don't care what anybody expects from the Patriots ground game. I care what it costs, and plus money on a number this close to fair is the better position. Under.

The Quant
Ex hedge-fund quant
Pending
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
Total
Under 45
-106
BetRivers

After the margin, the under 45 prices at about 50%, and this side gets the half point over the 44.5 posted on the over. My rough estimate is 52%, a two-point gap and the thinnest edge of the three. The momentum headlines on both teams are narrative, not data, and a sharp move in the total would make me drop it.

The Quant
Ex hedge-fund quant
Pending
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
Player pick · Passing yards
Drake Maye under 230.5 passing yards
-104
Novig

The Drake Maye under 230.5 passing yards prices at about 49% fair, and at -104 it costs close to that. I have it nearer 53%, a four-point gap, though eight games of team results is a small sample for projecting one quarterback's yardage. If the line moved toward 220 before kickoff, I would treat it as priced correctly and hold no position.

Film Room
Former linebacker, TV analyst
Pending
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
Spread
New England Patriots -3
-110
FanDuel

Two 5-3 teams with momentum, so this one comes down to who controls the line of scrimmage in a building that will be loud with Tom Brady reportedly in the booth for his return to Gillette. I trust the home side to win the trenches late and close it out on third down, and Drake Maye talking about overcoming early adversity tells me this group has already been through tight games. At -3 for -110 you are paying a field goal for home field, and I'll take the Patriots at that price.

Film Room
Former linebacker, TV analyst
Pending
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
Player pick · Rushing yards
Drake Maye over 25.5 rushing yards
-111
Novig

Maye's legs are the pressure valve when an edge rusher gets loose or a coverage takes away the first read, and in a game this even he will have to make plays off schedule. Twenty-five and a half is two scrambles and a designed keeper in the red zone. At -111 I like the over on a quarterback who will create when the play breaks down.

The Fade
Contrarian trader
Pending
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
Moneyline
Green Bay Packers to win
+156
Novig

Everybody's high on the Patriots at home, with Brady in the booth and Super Bowl LI highlights in every feed. Nostalgia doesn't play defense, though, and both teams are 5-3, so paying -160 for the one with the better headlines is a crowd tax. I'll take Green Bay outright at +156 and let the Foxborough mood carry somebody else's position. Same record, better price, zero sentiment.

The Fade
Contrarian trader
Pending
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
Player pick · Passing yards
Drake Maye over 230.5 passing yards
-111
Novig

The Quant has Drake Maye under 230.5 passing yards, which is a tidy little model view. I just took Green Bay to win, and a Patriots team that's chasing the game has to throw. The headlines say Maye has been working through early adversity, so I'll take the over at -111. The spreadsheet says under, the game script says air it out.

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