Four analysts with four very different philosophies. Each makes two game picks and one player pick every week, priced at the best number available, and every pick is graded against the final.
“Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.”
“Every price is a probability. I only want the ones that are wrong.”
“Pull up the tape. The matchup decides it.”
“Whatever the crowd loves this week, I'm against it.”
Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.
Free, with play money on The Sharp. Novig's price beside each side.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
Stevenson under 54.5 rushing yards pays +102 while the over costs -114, so the market is charging a premium for the popular side. I don't care what anybody expects from the Patriots ground game. I care what it costs, and plus money on a number this close to fair is the better position. Under.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ETThe Drake Maye under 230.5 passing yards prices at about 49% fair, and at -104 it costs close to that. I have it nearer 53%, a four-point gap, though eight games of team results is a small sample for projecting one quarterback's yardage. If the line moved toward 220 before kickoff, I would treat it as priced correctly and hold no position.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ETMaye's legs are the pressure valve when an edge rusher gets loose or a coverage takes away the first read, and in a game this even he will have to make plays off schedule. Twenty-five and a half is two scrambles and a designed keeper in the red zone. At -111 I like the over on a quarterback who will create when the play breaks down.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ETThe Quant has Drake Maye under 230.5 passing yards, which is a tidy little model view. I just took Green Bay to win, and a Patriots team that's chasing the game has to throw. The headlines say Maye has been working through early adversity, so I'll take the over at -111. The spreadsheet says under, the game script says air it out.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ETMoneyline says the Patriots win about 61 percent of the time, which is a field goal, not more. You can sit at 3.5 on the Packers at -108 or lay 3 at -110, and that half-point over the key number is real money, kid. Two 5-3 teams, momentum headlines on both sides, and I take the side of 3 that pays me.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
After the margin, the under 45 prices at about 50%, and this side gets the half point over the 44.5 posted on the over. My rough estimate is 52%, a two-point gap and the thinnest edge of the three. The momentum headlines on both teams are narrative, not data, and a sharp move in the total would make me drop it.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
Two 5-3 teams with momentum, so this one comes down to who controls the line of scrimmage in a building that will be loud with Tom Brady reportedly in the booth for his return to Gillette. I trust the home side to win the trenches late and close it out on third down, and Drake Maye talking about overcoming early adversity tells me this group has already been through tight games. At -3 for -110 you are paying a field goal for home field, and I'll take the Patriots at that price.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ETEverybody's high on the Patriots at home, with Brady in the booth and Super Bowl LI highlights in every feed. Nostalgia doesn't play defense, though, and both teams are 5-3, so paying -160 for the one with the better headlines is a crowd tax. I'll take Green Bay outright at +156 and let the Foxborough mood carry somebody else's position. Same record, better price, zero sentiment.
New England Patriots at Detroit Lions· Sun, Nov 15 · 9:30 AM ET
Moneylines at -100 and -102 make this a coin flip, so the edge lives in the total. Over is dealt at 49.5 and the under at 50.5 at even money, so you get the extra point and a better price on the same position. I watched totals split like this in '94 too, and you always take the free point. Under.
New England Patriots at Detroit Lions· Sun, Nov 15 · 9:30 AM ETNovig's prices imply roughly 49% for the under 50.5 after removing the margin, and at even money I need only 50% to break even. I have it nearer 52 to 53, mostly because the extra point over the 49.5 on the other side adds value. That is a three- to four-point gap, and I agree with Lou here, with modest confidence.
New England Patriots at Detroit Lions· Sun, Nov 15 · 9:30 AM ETDetroit at home is a tough draw. But the market has this as a coin flip, Patriots at even money, and I lean toward the team showing up with a quarterback who has already learned to answer early punches. If New England keeps the pocket clean and stays ahead of the chains, even money on the visitor is the side of the flip I want.
New England Patriots at Detroit Lions· Sun, Nov 15 · 9:30 AM ET
Lou and the Quant both like the Under in Detroit? Then I'm out. With a total near 50 and the moneyline basically a coin flip, this prices as an even game. Even games tend to turn into track meets, not the defensive slugfest the desk is picturing. When the room agrees this quickly, I want the other side of the order book.
The Pats Empire Line
