Patriots vs. Lions preview: Detroit favored by 2.5 as New England tries to rebound from 45-27 loss
The Lions are 2.5-point favorites over the 5-4 Patriots for Sunday, Nov. 15 on Fox, with the total at 50.5 to 51.5. Here are the odds, injuries and matchups.
The New England Patriots (5-4) play the Detroit Lions on Sunday, November 15, on Fox, and the Lions are favored by 2.5 points. On Novig, one of 11 venues on this site's board, Detroit is -144 on the moneyline and New England is +138. That makes the Patriots the underdog for the second week in a row after Green Bay beat them 45-27.
Our New England Patriots team page has the full schedule, roster and season guide. This preview covers what has changed this week and what to watch on Sunday.
Where the line sits
The market has the Lions as short favorites. Novig lists Detroit -2.5 at -115 and New England +2.5 at +108. BetRivers has the best price on Detroit at -2.5, offering -110, and it also has the shortest Lions moneyline at -137. Once you take out the vig, the moneylines give Detroit about a 58 to 59 percent chance to win. Sportsbook hold on the side markets runs from 3.0 to 4.8 percent. Prices on the Patriots-Lions odds page refresh about every ten minutes.
The total is 51.5 on Novig, where the over is -100 and the under is -120. FanDuel has the over at 50.5 for -115. That is a high number for a New England game. Patriots games have averaged about 46 combined points across nine weeks. The Packers game produced 72, though, and the Bears game reached 54.
Injury report
The first official injury report for this game comes out Wednesday, when practice resumes. Watch for any players who came out of the Green Bay game. Thursday's and Friday's reports, including game-status designations, will show who is available. Those reports also tend to move the line more than anything else does during the week. We will update the team page as the designations come out.
Matchups that decide it
The Patriots' defense after Green Bay. New England had been a hard team to score on. Through eight games it allowed 162 points and held Pittsburgh to 3 and Seattle to 13. The Packers then scored 45, the most anyone has put on the Patriots this year. One more result like that would wipe out the defense's early-season reputation. Detroit's offense is built to test that.
The Patriots' offense keeping up. New England has scored 24 or more in five of its last six games, including 27 in the loss to Green Bay. The only games in which the offense really stalled were the 6-35 loss at Jacksonville and the 10-13 opener at Seattle. A total in the low 50s suggests the market expects the Patriots to need points again.
How they've fared against the NFC North. This is New England's third straight NFC North opponent within four weeks. The Patriots lost 30-24 at Chicago and 45-27 to Green Bay. They have not yet beaten a division leader-caliber team from that group.
The bigger picture
New England has scored 211 points and allowed 207 this season, so its point differential is +4. That fits a team that has been alternating wins and losses. The Patriots have not won two in a row since their three-game streak against Buffalo, Las Vegas and the Jets. A win on Sunday would get them to 6-4 heading into the back half of the season. A loss would drop them to .500 and leave them looking up at more of the AFC wild-card race.
On legality
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