Patriots' Munich opponent: Lions' defense has turned around, Week 9 review shows
Detroit's 19-9 win over Miami extended a four-game streak of stingy defense ahead of its Munich game with the 5-4 Patriots.
The New England Patriots didn't play in Sunday's Week 9 window, but the opponent they face next did, and what it showed should get their attention. Detroit beat Miami 19-9, and ESPN's NFL Nation Week 9 review makes the case that the Lions' defense has gone from a liability to a strength. The two teams meet next Sunday in Munich at 9:30 a.m. ET, with Detroit listed as the home team.
ESPN's numbers show the turnaround clearly. Over the first four weeks, Detroit allowed 31.8 points per game, second-worst in the league. In the four games since, all wins, over Arizona, Green Bay, Minnesota and Miami, that average fell to 17.0. ESPN noted that Minnesota and Miami ranked 26th and 31st in scoring going into the week, so the recent schedule has helped. Still, Detroit has now put together four solid defensive games in a row.
The Lions' offense is the part that looks shaky. Detroit has gone two straight games without a first-half touchdown, which hadn't happened since October 2022. Miami pressured Jared Goff on 40% of his first-half dropbacks, sacked him three times and intercepted him. The Dolphins held an offense that came in leading the NFL at 395.4 yards per game to 120 by halftime.
The same ESPN piece also pointed to a problem on New England's side. In a note on the Saints, the outlet listed the Patriots among three teams tied for the third-most turnovers in the league, with 15. Against a defense that is starting to finish plays, that number matters.
What it means for Munich
New England goes to Germany at 5-4 after a 45-27 home loss to Green Bay, the most points the defense has allowed this season. Over the last four games the Patriots are 2-2: they beat the Jets 26-19 and Miami 24-19, and they lost 30-24 at Chicago before the Packers game. They have split their nine games almost exactly, scoring 208 points and allowing 207. They are 3-1 at home and 2-3 on the road, though Munich is neutral ground with Detroit as the designated home side.
The matchup has an awkward wrinkle. Green Bay just put up 45 on New England, but it was one of the four teams that couldn't do much against Detroit's improved defense. The Patriots' best scoring games, 45 against Las Vegas and 29 at Buffalo, came earlier in the season. Their worst came on the road, with 6 points at Jacksonville and 10 at Seattle.
The board for the game lists 11 venues, and all of them have Detroit favored. On the moneyline, Novig has the Lions at -144 and the Patriots at +138. The best Lions price anywhere is -137 at BetRivers, a 7-cent gap between venues. Sportsbook hold on the moneyline ranges from 3.0% to 4.6%.
The spread is close to a field goal. Novig lists Detroit at -2.5 (-117) and New England at +2.5 (+111), and Hard Rock Bet has the Lions at -2 (-120). Novig sets the total at 51.5, with the over at even money. FanDuel is a point lower at 50.5 (-115), which suggests the market is still split on whether Detroit's slow first halves continue.
Whether the Patriots stay above .500 at the midpoint of the season probably depends on two things: holding on to the ball and keeping pressure off their quarterback against a defense that has given up 17 points a game for a month. For more on the season so far, see the Patriots team page.