Patriots meet Jared Goff in Germany, where his history against New England is rough

Jared Goff brings a strong résumé to Sunday's international game against the New England Patriots. He has a 101-67-1 record as a starter. New England is one of the few opponents that has consistently beaten him. Mike Florio of ProFootball Talk on NBC Sports put Goff's career mark against the Patriots at 1-3 in his headline. Every meeting the article goes on to describe, though, ended in a New England win.

Those games tell the story. In 2016, Goff's third career start, the Patriots beat the Rams 26-10. Two seasons later, New England held Los Angeles to a field goal and won the Super Bowl 13-3. In 2020 the Patriots beat Goff's Rams 24-3, and in 2022 they shut out his Lions 29-0. Goff has scored 16 points total in those four games.

This time the setting and the opponent on the other sideline are different. Patriots.com confirmed the Week 10 game for November 15 as part of the league's international slate. Florio noted it will be Goff's first game against a New England team not coached by Bill Belichick. Goff has also never faced Mike Vrabel. Their teams never met while Vrabel coached the Titans and Goff started for the Rams and Lions. That leaves most of the old history behind.

The standings matter more to both teams. The Lions are 6-2 but sit in a crowded NFC North, where four teams have at least six wins. The Patriots are falling behind in the AFC East and could end up chasing a wild-card spot.

What it means for Sunday

New England comes in at 5-4 and has alternated wins and losses for a month. Last week Green Bay beat the Patriots 45-27, the most points they have allowed this season and worse than the 35-6 loss at Jacksonville. Before that they won 24-19 at Miami, lost 30-24 at Chicago and beat the Jets 26-19. The offense has scored at least 24 points in five of its last six games. The concern is a defense that has given up 30 or more in two of its last three. The Patriots are 3-1 at Gillette Stadium and 2-3 away from home, and this game has no home crowd for either side.

The market sees a close game with a slight lean toward Detroit. On this site's board, which tracks 12 venues, the Lions are favored at -138 on Novig, with the Patriots at +135. On the spread, Novig has Detroit favored by 2.5 at -111 and New England +2.5 at +108. The Patriots' best spread price anywhere is +3 at -115 on Hard Rock Bet, so the full field goal costs a little more juice there. Sportsbook hold runs from 3.0% to 5.3% on the moneyline and from 2.8% to 5.0% on the spread.

The total sits at 49.5 on Novig, with the Over at -104 and the Under at -102. Across the venues it ranges from 49 at Pinnacle to 50.5 at BetRivers, both at -113. That's a narrow band, and it fits two offenses that are expected to score.

Goff's poor record against New England is part of the buildup to this game. But Vrabel has never coached against him, and a Patriots defense coming off a 45-point loss is what Sunday's result is more likely to depend on.