Patriots defense under scrutiny after Packers loss as New England heads to Detroit

Through the first six weeks, the defense held the New England Patriots together. Now it is the reason they are struggling. In his weekly 3-Point Stance column, Andrew Guindon of Pats Pulpit (SB Nation) argues that the defense could stall New England's playoff push. The numbers support him. The Patriots gave up 18.8 points per game over their first six games and have given up 31.3 per game over the last three, a stretch that ended with last Sunday's 45-27 home loss to Green Bay.

The Packers hit the Patriots with big plays. Guindon reports that Matthew Golden and Christian Watson combined for 335 receiving yards and two touchdowns, and each set a career high. Christian Gonzalez, the All-Pro cornerback who signed a four-year, $135 million extension, was charged with 10 catches allowed for 187 yards, according to NextGen Stats. Safety Kevin Byard summed it up after the game: "We just didn't execute enough." Head coach Mike Vrabel said he expects more from Gonzalez and that the rest of the defense also has to play better.

The problem goes beyond one game. Chicago scored on six of nine drives in the 30-24 loss to the Bears, and Pats Pulpit counted 161 yards after the catch allowed that night. The same piece notes that New England ranks 31st in the league against under-center snaps and last against early-down play-action. Detroit leans on both. Fixing that will be harder without cornerback Carlton Davis, who is out with a knee injury. NFL.com also lists offensive lineman B. Brown (knee) and running back TreVeyon Henderson (illness) as out, and A.J. Brown as questionable with a knee injury after practicing on a limited basis.

The offense can't make up for much right now. Alijah Vera-Tucker, Romeo Doubs and Mike Onwenu remain sidelined, and Hunter Henry is playing through injury. Guindon also points to a difficult schedule the rest of the way and Houston moving into the playoff race.

What it means for Sunday in Detroit

At 5-4, New England has scored 211 points and allowed 207, so the margin for error is about as thin as the record looks. The team has won consecutive games just once since September, a three-game run against Buffalo, Las Vegas and the Jets. It is 2-3 on the road, with losses at Seattle, Jacksonville and Chicago. Detroit is 6-2. The Lions have their own injuries: their official report rules out safety Kerby Joseph, cornerback D.J. Reed and center Cade Mays, and lists Amon-Ra St. Brown as questionable with a rib injury. Jared Goff was a full participant by Thursday.

The board for Patriots at Lions has Detroit favored at all 12 venues. Novig has the Lions at -135 on the moneyline and the Patriots at +133. The Lions are 2.5-point favorites on Novig, with New England +2.5 priced at +108. The best number for the Patriots anywhere is +3 at -115 on Hard Rock Bet. Novig's total is 49.5, with the over at -104 and the under at -102. Elsewhere the total ranges from 49 at Pinnacle to 50.5 at BetRivers. Sportsbook hold runs from 2.8% to 5.4% across the markets, which means the venues are close to each other. A total near 50 suggests the market expects plenty of scoring, which fits how New England's defense has played over the past three weeks.

Kickoff is Sunday, November 15, on Fox.