Novig pricesPatriots vs. Lions in Munich: Detroit's pass rush is the main test for Drake Maye
Detroit's pressure, Jahmyr Gibbs and a secondary that is improving but still leaky are what the Patriots face in Munich after a 45-27 loss.
The Lions' answer for Drake Maye starts with getting pressure. In a question-and-answer exchange with SB Nation, the network's Lions blog, Pride of Detroit, said Detroit's pass rush is the unit that has to carry the defense Sunday in Munich. The secondary has been one of the league's weak spots this season.
The numbers show both sides of that. Pride of Detroit put the Lions seventh in the NFL in pressure rate (41.2 percent across 354 dropbacks) and seventh in sacks with 27. It still called the rush "more very good than dominant." Opposing passers are averaging 0.143 EPA per dropback against Detroit, the fourth-worst mark in the league. Over the last four games that figure has dropped to 0.016, which ranks 20th. The template Detroit will want to repeat came in Week 7, when it pressured Green Bay's Jordan Love on 17 dropbacks and limited his downfield passing.
The New England defense faces a deeper problem. Jahmyr Gibbs has 847 yards and nine touchdowns on 177 carries, and Pride of Detroit said he leads the NFL with 53 forced missed tackles. Backup Sione Vaki has taken whole series lately. The blog also said Jared Goff has been efficient against both man and zone coverage, which raises the question of whether New England keeps leaning on the man looks it usually plays. Sam LaPorta's role has shrunk in recent weeks, according to the blog, while Jameson Williams is averaging 16.7 yards per catch.
The game is officially a Detroit home game at FC Bayern Munich's stadium, according to NFL.com. Patriots.com lists Detroit at 6-2. The team's injury coverage this week listed Rhamondre Stevenson among nine Patriots who are questionable.
What it means for Sunday
The Patriots are 5-4 and have alternated wins and losses over their last four games. They come in after a 45-27 home loss to Green Bay, the most points they have allowed this season. NBC Sports noted that the Packers threw for close to 400 yards in that game. New England is 2-3 away from Gillette Stadium, and its road wins came at Buffalo (29-26) and Miami (24-19). The offense has scored 24 or more points in five of the last six games. Against a defense that gives up big plays through the air, that gives Maye room to work if the line keeps the rush off him.
The board for this game has Detroit favored at 12 venues. On Novig the Lions are -135 on the moneyline and the Patriots are +133. The spread is Lions -2.5, with New England +2.5 at +108 on Novig. The best number for the Patriots' side anywhere is +3 at -115 on Hard Rock Bet. The total sits at 49.5 on Novig, while Pinnacle has the over at 49 (-113) and BetRivers has the under at 50.5 (-110). NBC Sports listed the total at 51.5 in its preview. Sportsbook hold runs from about 2.8 to 5.4 percent depending on the market, so the venues differ on price more than on which team is favored.
Pride of Detroit's read is simple. Detroit likely wins if its rush gets to Maye and creates turnovers that give the offense short fields. New England likely wins if Maye gets time to throw deep and the defense keeps Gibbs from putting the Lions ahead of schedule.