Patriots' 45-27 loss to Packers: the numbers behind the Gillette record

The numbers from the New England Patriots' 45-27 home loss to Green Bay look even worse on a second read. In a statistical breakdown for SB Nation, Dylan Klayman notes that NextGen Stats charged All-Pro cornerback Christian Gonzalez with 10 catches allowed on 11 targets for 187 yards. That nearly matches the 196 yards he gave up across his first six games combined. Christian Watson finished with 171 receiving yards and Matthew Golden with 164, both career highs, and together they accounted for 335 of Jordan Love's 372 passing yards.

The 45 points were the most the Patriots have ever allowed at Gillette Stadium, according to NBC Sports Boston. The loss dropped New England to 5-4, and the turnover numbers explain a lot of it. Drake Maye threw three first-half interceptions, which gives him 11 for the season. That ties Justin Herbert for the league lead and is the most by a Patriots quarterback through nine games since Drew Bledsoe in 1994. New England is 0-3 when Maye throws two or more interceptions and 0-3 when its defense fails to force a turnover. Green Bay won the turnover battle again in the third quarter, when Isaiah McDuffie stripped Rhamondre Stevenson and Watson scored on the next snap from 39 yards out.

The Patriots have also started slowly. They trailed early at Chicago and Miami and fell behind 17-0 on Sunday, and SB Nation counts a 51-37 deficit in first-half scoring over the last three games. "It's tough to spot good teams any sort of lead," Mike Vrabel said afterward, per SB Nation.

What it means for Detroit in Munich

New England has lost two of its last three games. Its season point differential has shrunk to plus-4 (211 scored, 207 allowed), and that number is now carried by a few lopsided wins rather than steady play. The Patriots are 3-1 at home and 2-3 elsewhere. All four of their losses have come away from Foxborough or against a winning playoff-caliber opponent: Seattle, Jacksonville, Chicago and now Green Bay. Next comes another NFC North opponent. As reported by NBC Boston, the 6-2 Detroit Lions face the Patriots on Sunday, November 15, at Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany. DAZN notes that Detroit is the designated home team and has won four straight. Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown will test a secondary that just gave up two career days.

On this site's board, which tracks 12 venues, Detroit is favored. Novig has the Lions at -141 on the moneyline and New England at +135. The best Patriots price anywhere is Pinnacle's +136, so the venues are nearly identical on the outright result. The spread shows a bigger gap. Novig lists the Patriots at +2.5 (+113), while Pinnacle offers the full +3 at -112, and that half point matters for a game priced near a field goal. Novig sets the total at 50.5, with the over at -108 and the under at +102. FanDuel is the high number at 51.5 (-115 on the under). Sportsbook hold runs from about 3.0% to 5.5% across the three markets.

The market is pricing a close game, not a mismatch. For the Patriots to stay in it, Maye has to protect the ball and the defense has to force turnovers. They have not won a game this season without doing both.